Australia's strategic vulnerability is no longer theoretical. Across two recent pieces — A national audit for a stronger Australia (Defence Connect, June 2026) and First find Australia's economic vulnerabilities, then vigorously fix them (The Strategist, ASPI, July 2026) — I've argued that the evidence is now what strategists call "empirically established," and I made the same case at length recently on Defence Connect's Contested Ground podcast, alongside host Steve Kuper and Gravity Group...

For the first time in generations, Australians are confronting a hard truth: our nation is far more vulnerable to global disruption than we like to believe. The comforting assumption that supply chains will always function, that ships will always arrive, and that essential goods will always be available has been shattered by empirical evidence, wargaming, and the lived experience of recent global shocks. Australia is a resilient nation — but our industrial resilience is dangerously thin. A...

Similar to many Western democracies, Australia has embraced free trade for decades, leading to a gradual outsourcing of its manufacturing industry to China. In the late 1970s, manufacturing represented nearly 20% of Australia's GDP, but it has since dwindled to less than 6%. Consequently, Australia depends on other countries for the majority of its pharmaceuticals, heavy machinery, automobiles, aircraft, technology, chemicals, and defence materiel, including ammunition. Simulations from the...